Experts warn about risk of new oil exploration areas in Brazil
Leaks, accidents, and high greenhouse gas emissions are among the problems reported by residents of municipalities heavily impacted by oil exploration in Brazil.
In addition to environmental risks, experts criticize what they describe as the country’s “race against time” in the search for new fossil fuel exploration sites. They argue that this rush is pointless, as global oil demand is expected to decline significantly in the coming years.
Fisherman Humberto Sales Almeida, 42, was born and raised in the Baía do Araçá community, in São Sebastião, São Paulo. A third-generation fisherman, he says the arrival of the oil industry has transformed artisanal fishing in the region.
He recalls going out to fish with his father, casting their nets with the tide and returning with the day’s catch to sell in the community.
“Today, here in São Sebastião, there’s the dry cargo port, oil tankers anchored in the middle—all right where we used to fish,” he says.
“We can’t fish there anymore because of the heavy ship traffic, and also because of the pilot boats that have already run over people, nearly killing them. The [Port] Captaincy itself fines anyone who gets too close to a ship, forgetting that our community was here long before,” he adds.
About 30 kilometers from Almeida’s community, fisherwoman Ladisla Crispim dos Santos recalls fishing with nets along the shore, working with the tide, and harvesting shellfish.
“I ed my children for many years by harvesting shellfish from the sand—what we call cockles, or ‘bibigão’ as we say. These little shellfish are really delicious,” says the resident of the Porto Novo region in Caraguatatuba.
She said that both fish and shellfish were once abundant. “We used to by and poke at them with our heels, with our feet, to catch them. When the first oil spill happened here on the coast, it didn’t stop completely—we could still find some. But then the second spill came, and that was the end. There’s nothing left to say,” she adds.
Accidents
Last year, Brazil reported 731 maritime accidents to the National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP)—the highest number since the agency began tracking incidents in 2012, when it recorded 349 accidents.
The total includes all types of incidents that are mandatory to report, regardless of whether a leak occurred. “These encom equipment failures, well failures, employee accidents, illnesses, among others,” ANP stated.
The first major leak in the coastal region of São Paulo occurred in 2013. Petrobras Transporte (Transpetro) was held responsible for the environmental damage caused in the area.
According to fishermen, other incidents causing lasting damage have been documented at the site. “They spray dispersant from the ship’s deck onto the water. Over time, this dispersant sinks to the reef, where it destroys all the fish eggs,” explains Humberto Almeida.
Losses and damage
These and other damages were documented in the Analytical Report on Losses and Damages in the Pre-Salt Oil and Gas Chain, produced by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) and the Traditional Communities Forum (FCT) through the Bocaina Sustainable and Healthy Territories Observatory (OTSS).
According to Ana Flávia Pinto, a fisherwoman from Praia do Peres in Ubatuba, São Paulo state, and coordinator of the FCT’s Artisanal Fishing Struggle Front, the report highlights the economic, social, cultural, and emotional damages experienced by the community.
“We’ve been affected in many ways. The ship anchors and the age of oil tankers have reduced our fish catch and made it harder to our families and generate income for our communities. There’s also the danger of being at the fishing grounds—our boats or nets could suddenly be run over. We’ve been feeling really scared,” she says.
New fronts
On June 17, ANP will hold the 5th Cycle of the Permanent Concession Offer (OPC), auctioning 172 oil and gas blocks nationwide. Among the new areas are 47 blocks in the Amazon River mouth basin, part of the Equatorial Margin—an area along the northern coastline between the states of Amapá and Rio Grande do Norte identified as the country’s new pre-salt frontier. According to Petrobras, the Equatorial Margin holds significant oil potential, with reserves estimated at a minimum of 30 billion barrels.
Areas within the Amazon River mouth basin may be auctioned following a technical note from July 2020, which outlines sites eligible for oil and natural gas exploration and production. The document is tly signed by the Ministries of Mines and Energy and the Environment.
However, the technical note does not waive the requirement for an Environmental Assessment of Sedimentary Areas (AAAS); it merely permits auctions to proceed while the licensing process is still ongoing.
This week, the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources-Ibama approved Petrobras’ fauna plan for block FZA-M-59 in the Amazon River mouth basin, located 175 kilometers off the coast at a depth of 2,880 meters.
The plan is part of the requirements to secure the environmental license for drilling an exploratory well in deep waters off the coast of Amapá.
According to environmental engineer Juliano Bueno de Araújo, technical director of the Arayara International Institute, all these offers are essentially a gamble—made before the environmental viability is even confirmed.
“When a new auction is held, the first barrel of oil from these explorations will only become available after eight years,” he explains.
He says communities are convinced that oil is synonymous with development for the region. “There’s a siren song suggesting that the oil industry brings wealth, but we have to ask: wealth for whom? In the past, we were told that pre-salt production would solve the country’s health and education problems—but it didn’t,” he notes.
In Araújo’s view, Brazil is currently in a race against time to capitalize on the final years of growing oil demand before the energy transition in major economies reshapes the market.
“There has been an acceleration, especially over the past six years, in offering vast oil block areas for concession or production sharing in Brazil, signaling these hydrocarbon reserves—whether natural gas or oil—to both domestic and foreign companies,” he adds.
A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a slowdown in global oil demand in the coming years as countries advance their energy transitions.
“The growing use of electric vehicles, the rise of clean energy technologies, and stronger efficiency policies are together driving a much slower growth trajectory for oil demand, which is expected to stabilize toward the end of our 2023–2030 forecast period,” the Oil 2024 report states.
Petrobras’ Strategic Plan also acknowledges that peak production capacity is expected by 2029 but makes clear that new exploration fronts will be pursued as long as demand persists. “The natural decline in oil production will still require new E&P [exploration and production] projects, which must be both economically and environmentally resilient,” the document points out.
Petrobras states that producing oil from the Equatorial Margin is a strategic move to prevent the country from having to import oil over the next decade.
The Brazilian government also argues that revenues from fossil fuels will help finance the country’s energy transition.
In 2024, driven by pre-salt production, oil became Brazil’s top export, suring soybeans. Crude oil and mineral sales totaled $44.8 billion.
Competitiveness
WWF-Brazil conservation specialist Ricardo Fuji points out that, beyond the low likelihood of this oil reaching the market in time to meet the projected peak demand, Brazil’s chances of producing a competitive product—both in cost and emissions—are very slim.
“Countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia—a major producer—and Qatar can produce at lower costs and with less carbon intensity than we do. As global demand declines, other producers are likely to lose market share,” he says.
In Fuji’s opinion, by continuing to open new oil and gas exploration frontiers, Brazil will lose its standing in international climate discussion forums and become more vulnerable. According to him, the country would gain greater prominence if it consistently leveraged its leadership in renewable energy.
“We’re talking about energy from renewable sources, especially bioenergy. Proportionally, we are the world’s largest of biofuels. We also have significant potential in solar and wind energy, which we are already tapping into. In this regard, we hold competitive advantages not only in supplying renewable energy to international markets but also in shaping the strategies countries will adopt for the energy transition—an influence that will carry major implications in the years ahead,” he says.
For ClimaInfo’s environmental manager, Carolina Marçal, there is a clear contradiction between opening new fossil fuel exploration frontiers and addressing the climate emergency caused by global warming. “It’s not about meeting domestic demand, since Brazil has become a net exporter of oil. But whether the oil is extracted here or anywhere else in the world, it is ultimately burned and worsens climate change globally,” she stresses.
National reserves
A recent analysis by InfoAmazonia revealed that Brazil has sufficient proven oil reserves to last until 2040, provided it complies with the international agreements signed in recent years. The study assessed reserves as of 2023, identifying 15.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) already proven for production. When including probable reserves—with a 50 percent chance of extraction—and possible reserves—with a 10 percent chance of commercial production—the total rises to 18 billion boe.
In a scenario without exports, national reserves would last significantly longer, with proven stocks sufficient to meet domestic consumption until 2045.
But in a scenario aligned with the international Net Zero agreement—which anticipates a 75 percent reduction in global consumption and exports by 2050 as part of the energy transition—Brazil’s proven oil reserves would last until 2039, or until 2042 when including total reserves.
“It’s clear that Brazil doesn’t need to explore new frontiers to replenish its oil reserves—especially given the expected reduction in demand,” says Carolina Marçal.
Petrobras, for its part, warns that without oil production in the Equatorial Margin, Brazil could be forced to resume oil imports within the next ten years.
“The timing is very critical. In five or six years, pre-salt production will decline, and without new discoveries, we could be importing oil again by 2034 or 2035,” said Sylvia Anjos, Petrobras’ Director of Exploration and Production (E&P), during an open lecture at the Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (Coppe) at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro late last year.
The ClimaInfo analyst advocates for a different development path for the country: investing in green industrialization driven by the expansion of renewable energy generation and the implementation of socio-environmental safeguards to protect communities and the environment.
“The experience in Brazil and worldwide shows that the oil industry concentrates wealth, benefits only a few, and fails to promote broad socio-economic development,” she says.
